My Hello! Project predictions for 2017 - How wrong was I?

Over a year ago, I wrote a blogpost titled "Hello! Project's future", in which I made several predictions for 2017 and said I'd get back to it after a year, so here I am! I'm at the same time very impressed about how many of my predictions actually came true and very confused about some of the things I said. I know it was reasonable to think so back then, but the change in my opinions - especially concerning Yokoyama Reina and Tsubaki Factory - have been so drastic it's hard to believe it's been only a year.

So! Here are the actual predictions I made:

- Graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. 
- New members for Country Girls, and for Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen.
- Tsubaki Factory either finding balance or adding charismatic members.
- Morning Musume album
- Sub-unit releases

I'm kind of shook that I was right about graduations. I did not think it would be Duu and I hoped it wouldn't be AiAi, but that's what happened. Both groups also gained members, although not as a result of graduations or in a way I or anyone was expecting, as you can tell by my guess that Country Girls would also be gaining members. More about that mess in a tiny bit!

Tsubaki Factory definitely found balance. Hell, it was the year of Tsubaki. They totally found themselves and they shine so bright now. Of course they're still a new group, but it's been such a strong start I hope they keep it up.

We got a Morning Musume album, bless! And what an album it is. I love it.
We also got sub-/shuffle-units in the form of Upcoming Music Delivery. I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't follow these releases too closely, and there's been some critique about them, but personally I don't think releasing these digital songs took away from other releases, so they were a nice addition.

In addition, I want to point out these extracts from the text (that I didn't include in the final predictions):

"I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime."
"I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group."

These predictions about the Kenshuusei are a bit amusing as well as hard to talk about, as the results are still kind of hanging in the air. The first one turned out to be true, as Ruru and Momohime were announced as members of the acting unit, and for the second one, Ichioka's group was announced. But since, not much information about either group has surfaced. We'll just have to hope it's around the corner. So, in a way I was both right&wrong to state that there wouldn't be a new Kenshuusei group before 2018.

And finally:

"Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely."

This brings us back to the Country Girls case: Making the group part-time and adding 3 of the members to other Hello! Project groups - Morito to Morning Musume '17, Yanagawa (with Danbara Ruru) to Juice=Juice, and Funaki (with Kawamura Ayano) to ANGERME.

So, the "wild card" addition to Juice=Juice came true, in an even more surprising way. But frankly, now that everyone has adjusted to these changes, I'm pretty happy about the outcome. The new members fit the groups they were assigned to perfectly, heck, I even started liking Morito a bit more. The only downside is that I'm not good at following digital releases, so I've completely fallen behind in following Country Girls. This, alongside with Duu's graduation, were definitely the most shocking things to happen in 2017. But they were not bad changes. I accept that things sometimes need to change, and things are looking so good for Duu right now I'm only happy for her. I worry about AiAi, but her graduation wasn't that shocking, although it is very sad.

Best things about 2017 definitely include going to my first ever Hello! Project events. I didn't know in the beginning of the year any of these would happen, but I went to both Morning Musume's Spring and Fall tour concerts and a Juice=Juice single release&handshake event (Jidanda Dance / Feel! Kanjiru yo). I feel like it brought me closer as a fan, and I "discovered" love for members I was neutral about before. Ikuta Erina, Yokoyama Reina, Uemura Akari and Miyazaki Yuka rose fast on my rankings this year. I also think it was a great year musically, I enjoyed all of the releases and was particularly delighted by Morning Musume's album and the various OG collaborations they did. Especially Ai no Tane. Gets me every time.

Predictions for 2018

Naturally I should now come up with some? I don't have anything particular in mind, so there are not as thorough as last time, but just for fun:

- Ichioka's group will debut! Really hope so, haha. I wish Ono Kotomi and Maeda Kokoro would debut with her.
- Drastic changes for Kobushi Factory. Three members already left, and the group will need a big push to get back on their feet. I'm thinking 3 new members or something like that.
- I'm pretty sure both graduations and member additions will happen, but have no specific guesses or hopes for that. (Other than don't graduate my faves!)

♥♥♥

This text ended up way longer than I initially thought, I hope it was entertaining to someone! See you again, maybe in a month, maybe in a year..! (I've had this blog for 7 years. Wow?)

Hello! Project's future

I've had a blogpost "Does Morning Musume need an ace?" laying as a sketch here for almost a year. Now that the group got its 13th generation, a lot of thoughts emerged. About Morning Musume, the Kenshuusei, overall the future of Hello! Project. Everyone likes a little speculation!

Morning Musume's 13th Generation + Ace

Yokoyama Reina and Kaga Kaede. I'm particularly happy about Kaede and her being chosen was kind of expected. Personally I would've liked to see Danbara Ruru and Ono Kotomi join with her but I'm satisfied with the outcome. 2nin generation gives a nice balance to the current lineup, I think. It'll be interesting to see how they market the first generation of that kind!

A confession follows: Only now I'm starting to see what the fuss about Nonaka Miki has been all about. She really is the most charismatic performer in 12th gen and I can really see her as a regular center sometime in the future.

Which brings us to the original question, does Morning Musume need an ace? Personally I don't miss one girl being pushed to the front over others at all. I know a group needs to be recognizable to be popular, and an ace might help with that. I know a group needs to sell a lot of cd's!

And that's the thing. Morning Musume are selling. A lot. Scroll down to singles to see what I'm trying to say. Sure, they're not selling anywhere close what AKB48 and such are selling, but let's face it, they never will unless 48G sales somehow drop drastically.

I think the management knows what's the best for sales, and if they knew an ace was needed to sell as much as they want to, they would make one. There was a possibility to add some real ace material in 13th gen, at least I think so - Ruru or Kiyono Monohime would've done the job with a right push. Becoming an ace takes, in my opinion, 40% of talent and 60% or right management.

They didn't add one (no, neither of the new girls will be an ace), so I guess they're trying out a different style of lineup and if that works. I think it does. I think Morning Musume is at its finest.

Of course I'm just a western fan, I don't know how things actually are in Japan - do the people recognize Morning Musume, can they name any members?  But don't worry, they couldn't name Ai Takahashi back when she started as a leader. I recently watched an interview with 9nin Platinum Era and some OG members, and all the hosts of the show said they couldn't name any of the then current members. I'll try to find the video, it's lost somewhere in YouTube.

Future for the Kenshuusei and other groups

From my guesses to join the 13th generation, I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime, but with her I'd say they're more likely still waiting for her to grow a bit. I don't really see her in Morning Musume, nor Angerme. Ruru I'd very much like to see joining Angerme. Ono Kotomi would suit something similar to the Satoyama groups so well..! I hope we'll see her debut one day.

I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group, that would be very stupid before Tsubaki Factory has properly left the nest. I feel bad for them to be honest, I hope the new members bring some liveliness to the group but if they fail to really cheer it up a lot, it will be a long time before Tsubaki finds success. I'm still wondering how they managed to put together a group that is so monochrome? I hope they find their charm soon enough.

But there could be another Kenshuusei group. There's a lot of potential for a heckin' amazing group! Maybe in 2018. That might work.

Writing this, I can't quite decide which groups I want to gain more members. The groups with rotating member systems will continue on that path, but I think 2017 will be a quiet year in member additions, unless someone graduates. I feel like we might have an Angerme graduation pending. Oh, expect for Country Girls. They're very likely to add members, I think.

I can't see new members in Kobushi Factory. There would need to be at least 3 new members not to break the balance and nope, still can't see it. But Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely.

Things that might or might not happen:

So, for 2017, I'm predicting graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. In addition to ℃-ute and Momoko, of course. New members will be added to Country Girls, and to Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen. Tsubaki Factory either finds balance or adds charismatic members. Maybe even Momohime?

Morning Musume might finally release an album? Pretty please? Also sub-unit releases would be soooo nice. I already want to plan my own sub-units!

We'll see how wrong I was in a year..!

The best of 2015 [Charts Edition]

2015 is long gone, and at first I wasn't going to do the usual year-end-post, but I have to! A Youtube channel I've been following for a while now, put out the video seen above. It's a real interesting watch! The same channel posts a similar video weekly, so if you want to follow what's hot in Japan easily, do subscribe it!

If I understood right, these are the things measured for Billboard Japan charts: Physical sales, Digital sales, Radio airplay figures, Tweets related to the songs and the number of times a CDs has been registered as being inserted into a computer. At least according to Wikipedia.

Billboard's way, of course, is only one way to measure the popularity, so let's take Oricon's TOP 100, which only measures the physical sales, to this too, and talk about what's going on in Japanese music a bit!

So, the Billboard song chart's TOP 5:

1. Sandaime J Soul Brothers - R.Y.U.S.E.I

2. Arashi - Sakura

3. Arashi - Ai wo Sakebe

4. Arashi - Aozora no Shita, Kimi no Tonari

5. Sekai no Owari - Dragon Night

Oricon album chart's TOP 5:

1. Arashi - Japonism

2. Sandaime J Soul Brothers from EXILE TRIBE - PLANET SEVEN

3. DREAMS COME TRUE - DREAMS COME TRUE THE BEST!
Watashi no Dream Come

4. AKB48 - Koko ga Rhodes da, koko de tobe!

5. AKB48 - 0 to 1 no aida

Oricon singles chart's TOP 5:

1. AKB48 - Bokutachi ha tatakawanai

2. AKB48 - Halloween Night

3. AKB48 - Green Flash

4. AKB48 - Kuchibiru ni Be My Baby

5. SKE48 - Coquettish juutai chuu

Are you seeing the same three names all over?

To sum up this, I'll quote the uploader of the Billboard video: "A new challenger had entered to fight for the top spot which is no longer exclusive to the two 'A' groups", which of course means that Arashi and AKB48, who have been dominating the music scene for years, are facing a new challenger that is Sandaime J Soul Bothers, who did take the #1 spot on the Billboard list.

That isn't a big surprise if you've been following any charts over the past year, but compared to how Arashi topping albums and AKB48 literally ruling singles could possibly be seen coming three years ago, it's a nice refreshment to the scene.

When I started writing, I though I'd have much more to say about the subject, but none of the charts really include any big surprises, at least for me. AKB did not reach the TOP 5 of Billboard, which is on the verge of being interesting, but when you look at physical sales, they're still going strong.

A few names that have been popping up often during the year, could be mentioned. Sekai no Owari is a very popular and trendy group right now, and I think they're still growing. Nishino Kana is a name I wasn't familiar before subscribing to the Billboard channel, but she's featured in most of the videos from last year and did well in the year-end-compilation too. Johnny's groups, as well as old rock groups like Mr. Children and B'z are still as strong as ever.

The most popular Korean group by far is Tohoshinki (TVXQ), and only the biggest western hits reach the top positions of the charts. It makes me really happy that Japanese people haven't stopped listening to Japanese music. Of course they haven't - it rocks - but still.

What did you think of 2015?

Who surprised you? Or disappointed?

Do you think these charts really tell what's good music?

I'm still planning to do a second part of year-end-posts, possibly called "The best of 2015 [Me Edition]" or something. Please stay tuned!

Concerning Love Live!

So, obviously, Love Live! has been a huge thing recently.

I've heard some songs from μ's, seen some clips from the anime and I've got a lot of friends who are crazy about this series. I tried downloading the rhythm game once, but it didn't work on my device. I've fancied the character designs of Love Live! for a while, but never really felt like or felt pressured to watch the anime. I never said I never would, either, like the case might have been a few years back, when I was ridiculously negative towards idol animes.

Then, one day I stumbled upon the song Happy Maker!, and I went; "Why not."

Now, I'm not an anime person, I could say I usually watch one to two series a year, and don't even finish most of them. Still, I watched the first season of Love Live! in less than two days, and I was actually surprised how quickly it ended. I really liked the first season, and I wrote most of this after watching it. Season 2 was mainly boring, to be honest. I'd say only the last 2 episodes were actually worth something.

Here, read why Love Live! is so popular.

”When talking about this topic, it's important to note that the "idol" genre had been simmering in some corner of the overall anime media universe for a long while. -- They weren't really shows about idols, at heart. It was always "<x> with idols", x usually being some other already well-established genre, like mecha with idols or mahou shoujo with idols. -- Needless to say, Love Live didn't do that - the story was about the girls, and about the girls only.”

As an long-term idol fan I can say I'm surprised how long it took for an anime like this to appear and to become popular. (We can argue if this is the first pure idol-anime or not, but at least it's the first to go this big. Well, LL does have school genre in it too, but as school idols are an actual thing, you could call it a pure idol anime.) I mentioned how a few years back, when AKB0048 came out, I was really pissed about anime idols. I was the only idol fan I knew outside the internet and suddenly all my friends loved animated idols, do you get me?

Recently the situation has changed. It's partly because of LL and partly it is the reason why LL is so popular. Idols are a thing now. Artists like AKB48 and Kyary Pamyu Pamyu started becoming more popular around the same time Love Live! was released, and K-pop was getting even huger too. Nowadays it's very common to meet other idol fans at conventions and such, and I feel it's because everything just happened to happen at the right time. Japanese and Korean music and Japanese animation together caused an idol-boom. And I couldn't be happier about it. I don't know if people get it but even if it's "just" anime idols, after spazzing about idols alone for years, I feel so delighted to hear people talk about idols, to see people loving idols. (Note: Remember, I can only talk about my personal experiences, and I am only involved in the Finnish con scene.)

Why didn't this happen a few years ago? I think it wasn't only my childishness that was the reason I didn't like anime idols, it was because anime idols weren't ready yet.

Love Live! has nailed anime idols. The animation is beautiful, the girls are interesting each in their own way, and the songs are actually good! All I can compare LL to is random clips from AKB0048 and some other idol animes, but I don't need more to know LL is way out of their league. 0048 was so messy! Everything in that anime drowned under everything in that anime. Really, know how to stop.

So, if we ignore some disturbing facts about Love Live!, like how all the girls can just magically sing quite well and pull off concerts without microphones, or how a bunch of high school students can afford that many glorious costumes, the anime is good. And if I like an anime, boy, then it seriously is good. Sometimes I can't watch even my favourite series because everything that is characteristic to anime tends to disgust me. LL is a very generic anime, and yes, some things in it do annoy me, but it succeeds to hide all that under the great mood that is very genuine and idol-like. In season 2 the anime does become a little slow and lack the feeling, but it's still bearable. Two times 13 episodes is a nicely short anime for someone like me.

Love Live! lacks logic, but it succeeds on fulfilling the most important thing - being a Happy Maker!, like they sing in the song above. So, even if I still prefer my idols in the flesh, I can suggest watching Love Live! if you're even slightly interested in it. At least season 1. 

Make way for chubby idols!

As one of the most controversial new trends in J-pop, oversized idols begun their conquest to rule the world last year, and I gotta say happiness is guaranteed after listening to these songs! Let's take a look at some chubby idol groups:

The-not-actually-chubby-idols: Chubbiness

380 kilograms of idols: Pottya

And one more round trio: la BIG 3



Now I want to see a chubby idol group that doesn't sing about being chubby and eat delicacies on their videos. An idol group that is purely an idol group that just happens to be chubby, not an idol group whose existence revolves around being chubby. Seriously. Every one of these songs has the word macaron in their lyrics. Look at all the food and the pastel colors. I don't even have to look up the lyrics to know what they're singing about. Like it isn't possible to be chubby and live healthily?

Chubby idols got even the Americans thinking: Is this positive song actually positive?
(This video has surprisingly good arguments. Among the bad ones. Still, watch it!)

They're getting a bit sidetracked, let's return to the point:
These three groups are the exact copies of each others.

So, is every chubby idol destined to be like every other
chubby idol for the rest of their career?

No. This trend is still very young, and only taking its baby steps. I think Japanese music industry will keep evolving as quickly as it has to present day, and one day chubby idols won't be a thing anymore. They'll just be idols that are chubby. This is just the annoying first level of trying something new, where everyone are clones of each others.

I could almost say I know the positive lyrics are meant to be positive. These groups are created to honestly encourage girls to love themselves, not to eat more. A new idol group's survival just depends on having a personality. This "chubby concept" is something really rare in the Japanese music industry, so it will guarantee you the interest of the public. One of the Japanese characteristics is to generalize things and that's why these girls are loving the food.

Many fear Japanese chubby idols will get flushed down the toilet, like their Korean sisters Piggy Dolls got. Read more here. It's a possible scenario.
Then again, I have faith. Chubby idols won't go distinct, but eventually a few groups will be able to maintain the balance between chubbiness and the right concept and to succeed. They'll start making songs about regular idol subjects, they'll stop eating candy in each of their MV's. They'll possibly still be marketed as chubby idols, but by then the trend has got over it's awkward-teenage-phase. That is my hope and belief.

I will be very excited to follow what is next for chubby idols. Stay with me, and while waiting for more controversy, enjoy their great music!


By the way, I'm not saying anything about individual groups, but don't say the entire "chubby concept" is embracing All About That Bass that was released on June 30, 2014, when Chubbiness' auditions were held on June, 2013. And That Bass is so original with the 50's theme!

♥

Cute girls can do it

Opinion alert.

"Idols don't need to learn dancing or singing."
- Sashihara Rino, AKB48. Please read before reading this.

"An idol can be successful by only being cute."
- Many people. Some talking about Kyary.

True. In the idol industry, yes, there is space for cute only girls. There's demand, even.
Not all idols are the best singers nor are they supposed to be, what they're supposed to be is a relevant package of all singing, dancing, charisma, looks, you name it. But what I highly appreciate in making art - actually for me it's the most important thing to it - is effort. Putting all your heart in your work. Showing the world you've worked hard on what you do. And being honest about it.

This coming from an 48 member makes it questionable. Honestly, I never liked AKB as a group. I never appreciated the group's system or image. This is of course only about my personal preferences.
But. It's a fact there are hundreds of girls in total in these groups. In AKB alone, dozens. They dance together, they sing mostly playback. It's the truth, not all of them have to be good at everything. I understand Sashihara, she's seen idols who really don't need to learn things like singing correctly. It's natural to her. This is the truth in some groups, but it shouldn't be said as the fact would concern all idols.

Look at for example Kyary. She's often getting scolded for getting to the top by cuteness. She's sometimes stated untalented and annoying. Sure, Kyary's all cutesy and weird and I acknowledge that those are the main reasons she's popular. Nothing wrong with that. That's one way to get to the top. What's harder, is staying there.
As I see it, Kyary has to work so much more for her image, for her music. She must sing the songs all by herself - I hope you understand how a group can make a weak singer a superstar - she has to learn the dances and she has to remember to smile, because there's no one other to do these things for her. Okay, maybe she sings playback and all that, I don't know, but one of the hardest things in being an idol is to represent yourself and in cases of groups, to represent the group. Even if it was someone else singing your lines, it's you who gives the audience their show. It's you on the billboards. It's you who gives the fans the smile they hope for. Once you're made an idol, you maintain that image. In a group the attention is shared, the responsibility is shared.
In a group the least you can do for success is cuteness. Go solo, and, the least you can do is cuteness and effort.

But why to take the easiest way? One of the main things why I appreciate Momusu so much is the effort they put into the stuff they're doing. I'll use Sayumi, the cutesy queen of ours, as an example. She's often considered only cute, but I know she's much more than that. Morning musume has about 260 songs. Morning musume always sings live. There are usually about 10 girls in the group, so you actually notice if someone fails the choreography or misses the line. Even the cute girls and even the weak girls must know how to sing and dance.
Sayumi is often thought as the weakest singer on at least platinum era, but I've noticed, depending on the concert of course, her voice can be very strong. Not trembling at all. She just happens to have that kind of a quiet, high voice that seems weak. Sayumi has much stronger vocals than for example Junjun. Even Ai when Ai has her bad days.
Unpopular opinion time: Ai Takahashi is not a strong singer. She sure is a good singer, not just that strong on the stage. I love Ai.
What I'm trying to say is that you can clearly see how much effort Momusu puts in their performances. They know so many songs and dances from so many different eras and even if they're so fucking exhausted they can't get a voice out of their mouth, they try to sing the line.

Some defended Sashihara by saying that she meant to encourage the young girls wanting to be idols. Much possible, and if so, it's a sweet thought.
The thought just happens, in my opinion, to be wrong. It shouldn't be that way. An idol shouldn't be saying "you don't need to learn this and that, you can still do it." Actually, no one should. What we should say to ourselves and to our friends everyday, and what idols should tell people and of course themselves:
"Believe in yourself. Do your best. Always give it a try. Always learn new things. That's how you can do it. You don't have to be anything more than you are, if you only give your best."
The message doesn't really differ from the original one, does it? It could ne this is what Sashihara meant. All my kisses to her, honestly.

Just remember guys, idols are talented and cute and inspirational people, who are allowed to make mistakes. They're not any kind of heavenly or higher creatures, they're just so wonderfully human it makes me feel so.

ALL MY RESPECT TO THE CUTE IDOLS OUT THERE
YOU ARE THE BEST!
♥