Hello! Project's future

I've had a blogpost "Does Morning Musume need an ace?" laying as a sketch here for almost a year. Now that the group got its 13th generation, a lot of thoughts emerged. About Morning Musume, the Kenshuusei, overall the future of Hello! Project. Everyone likes a little speculation!

Morning Musume's 13th Generation + Ace

Yokoyama Reina and Kaga Kaede. I'm particularly happy about Kaede and her being chosen was kind of expected. Personally I would've liked to see Danbara Ruru and Ono Kotomi join with her but I'm satisfied with the outcome. 2nin generation gives a nice balance to the current lineup, I think. It'll be interesting to see how they market the first generation of that kind!

A confession follows: Only now I'm starting to see what the fuss about Nonaka Miki has been all about. She really is the most charismatic performer in 12th gen and I can really see her as a regular center sometime in the future.

Which brings us to the original question, does Morning Musume need an ace? Personally I don't miss one girl being pushed to the front over others at all. I know a group needs to be recognizable to be popular, and an ace might help with that. I know a group needs to sell a lot of cd's!

And that's the thing. Morning Musume are selling. A lot. Scroll down to singles to see what I'm trying to say. Sure, they're not selling anywhere close what AKB48 and such are selling, but let's face it, they never will unless 48G sales somehow drop drastically.

I think the management knows what's the best for sales, and if they knew an ace was needed to sell as much as they want to, they would make one. There was a possibility to add some real ace material in 13th gen, at least I think so - Ruru or Kiyono Monohime would've done the job with a right push. Becoming an ace takes, in my opinion, 40% of talent and 60% or right management.

They didn't add one (no, neither of the new girls will be an ace), so I guess they're trying out a different style of lineup and if that works. I think it does. I think Morning Musume is at its finest.

Of course I'm just a western fan, I don't know how things actually are in Japan - do the people recognize Morning Musume, can they name any members?  But don't worry, they couldn't name Ai Takahashi back when she started as a leader. I recently watched an interview with 9nin Platinum Era and some OG members, and all the hosts of the show said they couldn't name any of the then current members. I'll try to find the video, it's lost somewhere in YouTube.

Future for the Kenshuusei and other groups

From my guesses to join the 13th generation, I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime, but with her I'd say they're more likely still waiting for her to grow a bit. I don't really see her in Morning Musume, nor Angerme. Ruru I'd very much like to see joining Angerme. Ono Kotomi would suit something similar to the Satoyama groups so well..! I hope we'll see her debut one day.

I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group, that would be very stupid before Tsubaki Factory has properly left the nest. I feel bad for them to be honest, I hope the new members bring some liveliness to the group but if they fail to really cheer it up a lot, it will be a long time before Tsubaki finds success. I'm still wondering how they managed to put together a group that is so monochrome? I hope they find their charm soon enough.

But there could be another Kenshuusei group. There's a lot of potential for a heckin' amazing group! Maybe in 2018. That might work.

Writing this, I can't quite decide which groups I want to gain more members. The groups with rotating member systems will continue on that path, but I think 2017 will be a quiet year in member additions, unless someone graduates. I feel like we might have an Angerme graduation pending. Oh, expect for Country Girls. They're very likely to add members, I think.

I can't see new members in Kobushi Factory. There would need to be at least 3 new members not to break the balance and nope, still can't see it. But Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely.

Things that might or might not happen:

So, for 2017, I'm predicting graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. In addition to ℃-ute and Momoko, of course. New members will be added to Country Girls, and to Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen. Tsubaki Factory either finds balance or adds charismatic members. Maybe even Momohime?

Morning Musume might finally release an album? Pretty please? Also sub-unit releases would be soooo nice. I already want to plan my own sub-units!

We'll see how wrong I was in a year..!