My Hello! Project predictions for 2017 - How wrong was I?

Over a year ago, I wrote a blogpost titled "Hello! Project's future", in which I made several predictions for 2017 and said I'd get back to it after a year, so here I am! I'm at the same time very impressed about how many of my predictions actually came true and very confused about some of the things I said. I know it was reasonable to think so back then, but the change in my opinions - especially concerning Yokoyama Reina and Tsubaki Factory - have been so drastic it's hard to believe it's been only a year.

So! Here are the actual predictions I made:

- Graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. 
- New members for Country Girls, and for Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen.
- Tsubaki Factory either finding balance or adding charismatic members.
- Morning Musume album
- Sub-unit releases

I'm kind of shook that I was right about graduations. I did not think it would be Duu and I hoped it wouldn't be AiAi, but that's what happened. Both groups also gained members, although not as a result of graduations or in a way I or anyone was expecting, as you can tell by my guess that Country Girls would also be gaining members. More about that mess in a tiny bit!

Tsubaki Factory definitely found balance. Hell, it was the year of Tsubaki. They totally found themselves and they shine so bright now. Of course they're still a new group, but it's been such a strong start I hope they keep it up.

We got a Morning Musume album, bless! And what an album it is. I love it.
We also got sub-/shuffle-units in the form of Upcoming Music Delivery. I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't follow these releases too closely, and there's been some critique about them, but personally I don't think releasing these digital songs took away from other releases, so they were a nice addition.

In addition, I want to point out these extracts from the text (that I didn't include in the final predictions):

"I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime."
"I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group."

These predictions about the Kenshuusei are a bit amusing as well as hard to talk about, as the results are still kind of hanging in the air. The first one turned out to be true, as Ruru and Momohime were announced as members of the acting unit, and for the second one, Ichioka's group was announced. But since, not much information about either group has surfaced. We'll just have to hope it's around the corner. So, in a way I was both right&wrong to state that there wouldn't be a new Kenshuusei group before 2018.

And finally:

"Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely."

This brings us back to the Country Girls case: Making the group part-time and adding 3 of the members to other Hello! Project groups - Morito to Morning Musume '17, Yanagawa (with Danbara Ruru) to Juice=Juice, and Funaki (with Kawamura Ayano) to ANGERME.

So, the "wild card" addition to Juice=Juice came true, in an even more surprising way. But frankly, now that everyone has adjusted to these changes, I'm pretty happy about the outcome. The new members fit the groups they were assigned to perfectly, heck, I even started liking Morito a bit more. The only downside is that I'm not good at following digital releases, so I've completely fallen behind in following Country Girls. This, alongside with Duu's graduation, were definitely the most shocking things to happen in 2017. But they were not bad changes. I accept that things sometimes need to change, and things are looking so good for Duu right now I'm only happy for her. I worry about AiAi, but her graduation wasn't that shocking, although it is very sad.

Best things about 2017 definitely include going to my first ever Hello! Project events. I didn't know in the beginning of the year any of these would happen, but I went to both Morning Musume's Spring and Fall tour concerts and a Juice=Juice single release&handshake event (Jidanda Dance / Feel! Kanjiru yo). I feel like it brought me closer as a fan, and I "discovered" love for members I was neutral about before. Ikuta Erina, Yokoyama Reina, Uemura Akari and Miyazaki Yuka rose fast on my rankings this year. I also think it was a great year musically, I enjoyed all of the releases and was particularly delighted by Morning Musume's album and the various OG collaborations they did. Especially Ai no Tane. Gets me every time.

Predictions for 2018

Naturally I should now come up with some? I don't have anything particular in mind, so there are not as thorough as last time, but just for fun:

- Ichioka's group will debut! Really hope so, haha. I wish Ono Kotomi and Maeda Kokoro would debut with her.
- Drastic changes for Kobushi Factory. Three members already left, and the group will need a big push to get back on their feet. I'm thinking 3 new members or something like that.
- I'm pretty sure both graduations and member additions will happen, but have no specific guesses or hopes for that. (Other than don't graduate my faves!)

♥♥♥

This text ended up way longer than I initially thought, I hope it was entertaining to someone! See you again, maybe in a month, maybe in a year..! (I've had this blog for 7 years. Wow?)

Hello! Project's future

I've had a blogpost "Does Morning Musume need an ace?" laying as a sketch here for almost a year. Now that the group got its 13th generation, a lot of thoughts emerged. About Morning Musume, the Kenshuusei, overall the future of Hello! Project. Everyone likes a little speculation!

Morning Musume's 13th Generation + Ace

Yokoyama Reina and Kaga Kaede. I'm particularly happy about Kaede and her being chosen was kind of expected. Personally I would've liked to see Danbara Ruru and Ono Kotomi join with her but I'm satisfied with the outcome. 2nin generation gives a nice balance to the current lineup, I think. It'll be interesting to see how they market the first generation of that kind!

A confession follows: Only now I'm starting to see what the fuss about Nonaka Miki has been all about. She really is the most charismatic performer in 12th gen and I can really see her as a regular center sometime in the future.

Which brings us to the original question, does Morning Musume need an ace? Personally I don't miss one girl being pushed to the front over others at all. I know a group needs to be recognizable to be popular, and an ace might help with that. I know a group needs to sell a lot of cd's!

And that's the thing. Morning Musume are selling. A lot. Scroll down to singles to see what I'm trying to say. Sure, they're not selling anywhere close what AKB48 and such are selling, but let's face it, they never will unless 48G sales somehow drop drastically.

I think the management knows what's the best for sales, and if they knew an ace was needed to sell as much as they want to, they would make one. There was a possibility to add some real ace material in 13th gen, at least I think so - Ruru or Kiyono Monohime would've done the job with a right push. Becoming an ace takes, in my opinion, 40% of talent and 60% or right management.

They didn't add one (no, neither of the new girls will be an ace), so I guess they're trying out a different style of lineup and if that works. I think it does. I think Morning Musume is at its finest.

Of course I'm just a western fan, I don't know how things actually are in Japan - do the people recognize Morning Musume, can they name any members?  But don't worry, they couldn't name Ai Takahashi back when she started as a leader. I recently watched an interview with 9nin Platinum Era and some OG members, and all the hosts of the show said they couldn't name any of the then current members. I'll try to find the video, it's lost somewhere in YouTube.

Future for the Kenshuusei and other groups

From my guesses to join the 13th generation, I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime, but with her I'd say they're more likely still waiting for her to grow a bit. I don't really see her in Morning Musume, nor Angerme. Ruru I'd very much like to see joining Angerme. Ono Kotomi would suit something similar to the Satoyama groups so well..! I hope we'll see her debut one day.

I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group, that would be very stupid before Tsubaki Factory has properly left the nest. I feel bad for them to be honest, I hope the new members bring some liveliness to the group but if they fail to really cheer it up a lot, it will be a long time before Tsubaki finds success. I'm still wondering how they managed to put together a group that is so monochrome? I hope they find their charm soon enough.

But there could be another Kenshuusei group. There's a lot of potential for a heckin' amazing group! Maybe in 2018. That might work.

Writing this, I can't quite decide which groups I want to gain more members. The groups with rotating member systems will continue on that path, but I think 2017 will be a quiet year in member additions, unless someone graduates. I feel like we might have an Angerme graduation pending. Oh, expect for Country Girls. They're very likely to add members, I think.

I can't see new members in Kobushi Factory. There would need to be at least 3 new members not to break the balance and nope, still can't see it. But Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely.

Things that might or might not happen:

So, for 2017, I'm predicting graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. In addition to ℃-ute and Momoko, of course. New members will be added to Country Girls, and to Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen. Tsubaki Factory either finds balance or adds charismatic members. Maybe even Momohime?

Morning Musume might finally release an album? Pretty please? Also sub-unit releases would be soooo nice. I already want to plan my own sub-units!

We'll see how wrong I was in a year..!

Seishun Kozo ga Naiteiru- Another Version

Let's talk about Morning Musume '15's Seishun Kozo ga Naiteiru. And yeah, the regular version is okay. The another version will make your mind blow up and become a part of the greater existence.

The another version is directed by Shuhei Shibue, who won the Big Chance competition with this video. It was quite clear already back then the music video he would get to direct was going to be something completely different. His style is really unique.

Of course I like this MV already a bit better, because it has Zukki! I have nothing against Karin, and I know putting her on Zukki's place in the promotion edit(s) was a considered move, but I just don't think she fits the atmosphere of Morning Musume songs.

Anyway, Seishun Kozo ga Naiteiru. What a great song! And this another version is possibly the best music video from Morning Musume ever.

What's great about Sibue's MV is everything. Seriously, it's innovative, interesting and inspiring. The atmosphere is really fantasy-, even dreamlike throughout the video. It's exciting, even thrilling to follow. It has everything you could ever wish for - references to art, school uniforms, cheerleading, great GC, some fanservice, and an actual idea. (Which of course is the 12kies joining their scary senpais, who already have their personalities sorted out, in a wacky journey trough idolhood.) I'm not actually a big fan of long story MV's, this is just the amount of plot I need.

The best part is when the girls tear their way trough the wall. The shot has a really mysterious, even intimate feel to it and is very unusual. I love the detail when Maachan flips the piece of paper out of her way. Another great scene is when they break to the chorus for the last time and the petals start falling due to lighting. Like, what? Everything makes so little sense it's just utterly great.

There's a lot going on in the MV, and it still doesn't get messy. There's just more and more to discover - which fits the song, it's the same. For once, there's a music video that really embraces the song, its lyrics and the girls, and really is something suitable only for this one song. I wish there were more music videos like this, hell, Morning Musume could get hugely popular again if all their videos were like this.

Lastly, a couple of words about the song. It's written by Tsunku, who recently lost his ability to speak completely because of cancer. (If you're wondering whether I'm extremely sad about his loss or extremely happy he's still with us and working with music, I'm totally both.) The untranslated parts are from an old Japanese poem, and mean something like this:

Even the blossoming flowers
Will eventually scatter
Who in our world
Is unchanging?
The deep mountains of karma
We cross them today
And we shall not have superficial dreams
Nor be deluded.

If you're still not amazed by Seishun Kozo, I'm not sure what I should do with you.

♥ screenshot credits ♥

Faith in Morning musume keeps rising

I can't wait to talk about this MV so I'm going to talk right now.

Morning musume。'14 launches their first music video in today's Haro! Station. Egao no Kimi wa Taiyou sa. Sayu's goddes-like appereance makes me cry at 0:17. For some reasons clapping in songs really appeals to me. At 0:22 I want to start praising the anonymous person who is in charge of CG for Tsunku. This is how you do it. The dubstep doesn't surprise me but it doesn't sound bad. It's part of their image nowadays so let it be if it fits in. I'm surprised how soft and aidoru-like the vocals are. Some lines are very badly arranged, but at least they are greatly distributed! Finally I feel everyone gets a share! The "nikitekoso"-line generates so much energy inside me I fully realize why Tsunku described this song uplifting. I love the feeling of summer that Egao no Kimi brings to this stupid dark winter.

The outfits are nice - as eternal lover of light colours I can't say it's too much white, but I can't help noticing two girls are wearing different shoes from everyone else. Why? Also, why are they trying to make Erina this boyish Yankee-girl? The snapback looks so corny on her, while Kuduu wears it looking all natural. Of course I hope Erina would find her own personality and type but it won't happen by forcing.
Otherwise the group close-ups are very nice and the girls look like they're actually enjoying their job. I think I've said this before but hey, it couldn't be more important!

This isn't the best song I've heard or the most complicated video I've seen, but this is huge improvement. I seriously had forgotten how bad Wakuteka, Help me!! and such look. I feel Morning musume is on the rise again. Since the rock bottom in the group's history about a year ago, every single has been better than the previous. I hope it would show in the sales and rankings too.

I love What is LOVE and am positively surprised by this. I can't wait for more of this single. What do you think of these songs?

ps. *your

Cute girls can do it

Opinion alert.

"Idols don't need to learn dancing or singing."
- Sashihara Rino, AKB48. Please read before reading this.

"An idol can be successful by only being cute."
- Many people. Some talking about Kyary.

True. In the idol industry, yes, there is space for cute only girls. There's demand, even.
Not all idols are the best singers nor are they supposed to be, what they're supposed to be is a relevant package of all singing, dancing, charisma, looks, you name it. But what I highly appreciate in making art - actually for me it's the most important thing to it - is effort. Putting all your heart in your work. Showing the world you've worked hard on what you do. And being honest about it.

This coming from an 48 member makes it questionable. Honestly, I never liked AKB as a group. I never appreciated the group's system or image. This is of course only about my personal preferences.
But. It's a fact there are hundreds of girls in total in these groups. In AKB alone, dozens. They dance together, they sing mostly playback. It's the truth, not all of them have to be good at everything. I understand Sashihara, she's seen idols who really don't need to learn things like singing correctly. It's natural to her. This is the truth in some groups, but it shouldn't be said as the fact would concern all idols.

Look at for example Kyary. She's often getting scolded for getting to the top by cuteness. She's sometimes stated untalented and annoying. Sure, Kyary's all cutesy and weird and I acknowledge that those are the main reasons she's popular. Nothing wrong with that. That's one way to get to the top. What's harder, is staying there.
As I see it, Kyary has to work so much more for her image, for her music. She must sing the songs all by herself - I hope you understand how a group can make a weak singer a superstar - she has to learn the dances and she has to remember to smile, because there's no one other to do these things for her. Okay, maybe she sings playback and all that, I don't know, but one of the hardest things in being an idol is to represent yourself and in cases of groups, to represent the group. Even if it was someone else singing your lines, it's you who gives the audience their show. It's you on the billboards. It's you who gives the fans the smile they hope for. Once you're made an idol, you maintain that image. In a group the attention is shared, the responsibility is shared.
In a group the least you can do for success is cuteness. Go solo, and, the least you can do is cuteness and effort.

But why to take the easiest way? One of the main things why I appreciate Momusu so much is the effort they put into the stuff they're doing. I'll use Sayumi, the cutesy queen of ours, as an example. She's often considered only cute, but I know she's much more than that. Morning musume has about 260 songs. Morning musume always sings live. There are usually about 10 girls in the group, so you actually notice if someone fails the choreography or misses the line. Even the cute girls and even the weak girls must know how to sing and dance.
Sayumi is often thought as the weakest singer on at least platinum era, but I've noticed, depending on the concert of course, her voice can be very strong. Not trembling at all. She just happens to have that kind of a quiet, high voice that seems weak. Sayumi has much stronger vocals than for example Junjun. Even Ai when Ai has her bad days.
Unpopular opinion time: Ai Takahashi is not a strong singer. She sure is a good singer, not just that strong on the stage. I love Ai.
What I'm trying to say is that you can clearly see how much effort Momusu puts in their performances. They know so many songs and dances from so many different eras and even if they're so fucking exhausted they can't get a voice out of their mouth, they try to sing the line.

Some defended Sashihara by saying that she meant to encourage the young girls wanting to be idols. Much possible, and if so, it's a sweet thought.
The thought just happens, in my opinion, to be wrong. It shouldn't be that way. An idol shouldn't be saying "you don't need to learn this and that, you can still do it." Actually, no one should. What we should say to ourselves and to our friends everyday, and what idols should tell people and of course themselves:
"Believe in yourself. Do your best. Always give it a try. Always learn new things. That's how you can do it. You don't have to be anything more than you are, if you only give your best."
The message doesn't really differ from the original one, does it? It could ne this is what Sashihara meant. All my kisses to her, honestly.

Just remember guys, idols are talented and cute and inspirational people, who are allowed to make mistakes. They're not any kind of heavenly or higher creatures, they're just so wonderfully human it makes me feel so.

ALL MY RESPECT TO THE CUTE IDOLS OUT THERE
YOU ARE THE BEST!
♥