My Hello! Project predictions for 2017 - How wrong was I?

Over a year ago, I wrote a blogpost titled "Hello! Project's future", in which I made several predictions for 2017 and said I'd get back to it after a year, so here I am! I'm at the same time very impressed about how many of my predictions actually came true and very confused about some of the things I said. I know it was reasonable to think so back then, but the change in my opinions - especially concerning Yokoyama Reina and Tsubaki Factory - have been so drastic it's hard to believe it's been only a year.

So! Here are the actual predictions I made:

- Graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. 
- New members for Country Girls, and for Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen.
- Tsubaki Factory either finding balance or adding charismatic members.
- Morning Musume album
- Sub-unit releases

I'm kind of shook that I was right about graduations. I did not think it would be Duu and I hoped it wouldn't be AiAi, but that's what happened. Both groups also gained members, although not as a result of graduations or in a way I or anyone was expecting, as you can tell by my guess that Country Girls would also be gaining members. More about that mess in a tiny bit!

Tsubaki Factory definitely found balance. Hell, it was the year of Tsubaki. They totally found themselves and they shine so bright now. Of course they're still a new group, but it's been such a strong start I hope they keep it up.

We got a Morning Musume album, bless! And what an album it is. I love it.
We also got sub-/shuffle-units in the form of Upcoming Music Delivery. I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't follow these releases too closely, and there's been some critique about them, but personally I don't think releasing these digital songs took away from other releases, so they were a nice addition.

In addition, I want to point out these extracts from the text (that I didn't include in the final predictions):

"I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime."
"I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group."

These predictions about the Kenshuusei are a bit amusing as well as hard to talk about, as the results are still kind of hanging in the air. The first one turned out to be true, as Ruru and Momohime were announced as members of the acting unit, and for the second one, Ichioka's group was announced. But since, not much information about either group has surfaced. We'll just have to hope it's around the corner. So, in a way I was both right&wrong to state that there wouldn't be a new Kenshuusei group before 2018.

And finally:

"Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely."

This brings us back to the Country Girls case: Making the group part-time and adding 3 of the members to other Hello! Project groups - Morito to Morning Musume '17, Yanagawa (with Danbara Ruru) to Juice=Juice, and Funaki (with Kawamura Ayano) to ANGERME.

So, the "wild card" addition to Juice=Juice came true, in an even more surprising way. But frankly, now that everyone has adjusted to these changes, I'm pretty happy about the outcome. The new members fit the groups they were assigned to perfectly, heck, I even started liking Morito a bit more. The only downside is that I'm not good at following digital releases, so I've completely fallen behind in following Country Girls. This, alongside with Duu's graduation, were definitely the most shocking things to happen in 2017. But they were not bad changes. I accept that things sometimes need to change, and things are looking so good for Duu right now I'm only happy for her. I worry about AiAi, but her graduation wasn't that shocking, although it is very sad.

Best things about 2017 definitely include going to my first ever Hello! Project events. I didn't know in the beginning of the year any of these would happen, but I went to both Morning Musume's Spring and Fall tour concerts and a Juice=Juice single release&handshake event (Jidanda Dance / Feel! Kanjiru yo). I feel like it brought me closer as a fan, and I "discovered" love for members I was neutral about before. Ikuta Erina, Yokoyama Reina, Uemura Akari and Miyazaki Yuka rose fast on my rankings this year. I also think it was a great year musically, I enjoyed all of the releases and was particularly delighted by Morning Musume's album and the various OG collaborations they did. Especially Ai no Tane. Gets me every time.

Predictions for 2018

Naturally I should now come up with some? I don't have anything particular in mind, so there are not as thorough as last time, but just for fun:

- Ichioka's group will debut! Really hope so, haha. I wish Ono Kotomi and Maeda Kokoro would debut with her.
- Drastic changes for Kobushi Factory. Three members already left, and the group will need a big push to get back on their feet. I'm thinking 3 new members or something like that.
- I'm pretty sure both graduations and member additions will happen, but have no specific guesses or hopes for that. (Other than don't graduate my faves!)

♥♥♥

This text ended up way longer than I initially thought, I hope it was entertaining to someone! See you again, maybe in a month, maybe in a year..! (I've had this blog for 7 years. Wow?)

Hello! Project's future

I've had a blogpost "Does Morning Musume need an ace?" laying as a sketch here for almost a year. Now that the group got its 13th generation, a lot of thoughts emerged. About Morning Musume, the Kenshuusei, overall the future of Hello! Project. Everyone likes a little speculation!

Morning Musume's 13th Generation + Ace

Yokoyama Reina and Kaga Kaede. I'm particularly happy about Kaede and her being chosen was kind of expected. Personally I would've liked to see Danbara Ruru and Ono Kotomi join with her but I'm satisfied with the outcome. 2nin generation gives a nice balance to the current lineup, I think. It'll be interesting to see how they market the first generation of that kind!

A confession follows: Only now I'm starting to see what the fuss about Nonaka Miki has been all about. She really is the most charismatic performer in 12th gen and I can really see her as a regular center sometime in the future.

Which brings us to the original question, does Morning Musume need an ace? Personally I don't miss one girl being pushed to the front over others at all. I know a group needs to be recognizable to be popular, and an ace might help with that. I know a group needs to sell a lot of cd's!

And that's the thing. Morning Musume are selling. A lot. Scroll down to singles to see what I'm trying to say. Sure, they're not selling anywhere close what AKB48 and such are selling, but let's face it, they never will unless 48G sales somehow drop drastically.

I think the management knows what's the best for sales, and if they knew an ace was needed to sell as much as they want to, they would make one. There was a possibility to add some real ace material in 13th gen, at least I think so - Ruru or Kiyono Monohime would've done the job with a right push. Becoming an ace takes, in my opinion, 40% of talent and 60% or right management.

They didn't add one (no, neither of the new girls will be an ace), so I guess they're trying out a different style of lineup and if that works. I think it does. I think Morning Musume is at its finest.

Of course I'm just a western fan, I don't know how things actually are in Japan - do the people recognize Morning Musume, can they name any members?  But don't worry, they couldn't name Ai Takahashi back when she started as a leader. I recently watched an interview with 9nin Platinum Era and some OG members, and all the hosts of the show said they couldn't name any of the then current members. I'll try to find the video, it's lost somewhere in YouTube.

Future for the Kenshuusei and other groups

From my guesses to join the 13th generation, I think the management has something planned for Ruru. Possibly also for Momohime, but with her I'd say they're more likely still waiting for her to grow a bit. I don't really see her in Morning Musume, nor Angerme. Ruru I'd very much like to see joining Angerme. Ono Kotomi would suit something similar to the Satoyama groups so well..! I hope we'll see her debut one day.

I hope there won't be another Kenshuusei group, that would be very stupid before Tsubaki Factory has properly left the nest. I feel bad for them to be honest, I hope the new members bring some liveliness to the group but if they fail to really cheer it up a lot, it will be a long time before Tsubaki finds success. I'm still wondering how they managed to put together a group that is so monochrome? I hope they find their charm soon enough.

But there could be another Kenshuusei group. There's a lot of potential for a heckin' amazing group! Maybe in 2018. That might work.

Writing this, I can't quite decide which groups I want to gain more members. The groups with rotating member systems will continue on that path, but I think 2017 will be a quiet year in member additions, unless someone graduates. I feel like we might have an Angerme graduation pending. Oh, expect for Country Girls. They're very likely to add members, I think.

I can't see new members in Kobushi Factory. There would need to be at least 3 new members not to break the balance and nope, still can't see it. But Juice=Juice with new members...? A wild card! That would be very interesting although I don't think it's very likely.

Things that might or might not happen:

So, for 2017, I'm predicting graduations for Angerme and maybe also Morning Musume. In addition to ℃-ute and Momoko, of course. New members will be added to Country Girls, and to Angerme and Morning Musume if graduations happen. Tsubaki Factory either finds balance or adds charismatic members. Maybe even Momohime?

Morning Musume might finally release an album? Pretty please? Also sub-unit releases would be soooo nice. I already want to plan my own sub-units!

We'll see how wrong I was in a year..!

Listen to! May

I am almost over whelmed about the quality of music being released right now! Or maybe I just like to get excited! Who cares! Also, everyone loves a good collaboration, right? Lots of them ahead!

Really. Where is all this awesomeness coming from. I didn't know it was possible for me to be even more excited about music than I usually am. And I didn't even include any Hello! Project who've been slaying as well. Figured you already heard of them if you're interested.

Would be nice to know is someone's actually getting something out of this blog. Love a song? Please share! Hated one that I posted? Please share! Would it be nicer to share a playlist instead of separate videos? Comments are always welcome ♥
I also have a new Twitter, focusing on same subjects as this blog, do check it out: @musumenohoshi!